San Diego received only a trace of rain in October, just 0.13 inches in November, and theres no significant precipitation in sight through Dec. 11.

Is this the prelude to an abnormally dry winter that will bring drought and the prospect of widespread wildfires?

Forecasters arent sure, but they dont like the way things are unfolding.

Were off to a dry start and as the weeks go by you begin to think uh-oh are we going to have a dry winter, said Brandt Maxwell, a forecaster at the National Weather Service.

The worry is running a little deeper than usual because the Pacific is giving birth to La Niña, a natural, periodic climate phenomenon thats associated with dry winters in Southern California.

Thats not a guarantee that things will stay dry locally. Two years ago, San Diego experienced a very wet winter in the presence of La Niña. But the combination of La Niña and Santa Ana winds have sparked horrific fires in the past, which sticks in the mind of forecasters and first responders.

San Diegos weather is expected to remain calm and dry into Thursday, when weak Santa Ana winds begin popping through inland canyons. The winds might intensify on Friday, forecasters said. At the moment, it does not appear that a red flag fire warning will be issued.