The California Air Resources Board on Friday approved stricter carbon-intensity standards on fuels to help meet the states climate targets, even though questions have been raised that doing so may lead to a spike in gasoline prices.

In a long-anticipated meeting in Riverside that ran more than 12 hours, board members voted 12-2 to update the states Low Carbon Fuel Standard for the first time in five years.

We cannot afford to continue with the status quo, said Liane Randolph, chair of the air resources board, known as CARB. We must continue to chart a path away from fossil fuels while designing policies that protect for or mitigate against and avoid other harms.

Dean Florez, who raised questions about how strengthening the standard would affect gas prices, voted no. So did Diane Takvorian who said, We could have done better.

The decision raises the carbon-intensity reduction target from 20 percent to 30 percent in 2030 — and increases it to 90 percent by 2045.

Created in 2011, the standard known as the LCFS has established a credit-trading program that makes transportation fuels such as gasoline, diesel and aviation jet fuel become less polluting over time.

Fuel producers that don’t meet the requirements must buy credits from those who do, thus providing companies an incentive to develop cleaner fuel options. CARB touts that more than 31 billion gallons of petroleum have been displaced by low-carbon fuels, including 5 billion gallons in 2023 alone.

But strengthening the standard affects the credit prices in the LCFS, which then influences the price of fuel.

Back in September 2023, CARB staff released a 175-page assessment of the impacts of passing stricter requirements. It included a table that projected a potential increase in the price of gasoline of 47 cents per gallon in 2025 (and 59 cents for diesel and 44 cents for fossil jet fuel).

CARB officials have since backtracked, saying the figures were not explicit predictions of where gas prices would go, and asserted that the LCFS historically accounts for just 8 to 10 cents of what consumers pay per gallon.

But last month, climate economist Danny Cullenward wrote a paper for the Kleinman Center for Energy Policy at the University of Pennsylvania that included analysis of how an update to the fuel standard could affect total retail prices at the pump.

If LCFS credit prices reach their maximum allowed levels, “then retail gas prices impacts could be” 65 cents per gallon in the near term, 85 cents per gallon by 2030 and nearly $1.50 per gallon by 2035, the paper said.

But in the next paragraph, Cullenward said LCFS credit prices “are fundamentally uncertain and could easily be lower” and suggested a rise in credit prices from about $60 (where they are now) to $100 per credit could translate to total retail gas prices going up 26 cents per gallon in the near term, 34 cents per gallon by 2030 and almost 60 cents by 2035.

Prior to the vote, former CARB executive officer Mary Nichols urged the board to approve the amendments, saying that by updating the LCFS, the shift to clean fuels in California will only accelerate.

Some critics complain that the state has failed to publish precise estimates of the future impact of the program on gasoline prices; we have heard this criticism every time California has acted to reduce pollution from fuels, going back to the days when we banned leaded gasoline, Nichols said in a post for Legal Planet, a climate policy and environmental blog. Each time, we have seen that fuels markets are way too dynamic and complicated to pin down to a simple number.

Voting board member Hector De La Torre pointed to graphics posted by the California Energy Commission stating that jumps in gas prices were not due to state taxes, fees or the LCFS, but to profit margins of oil refiners in the state.

So let us be clear about why we have the wild fluctuations in California on gas prices, De La Torre said. It is not us (CARB), it is not the Legislature.

CARB officials say the updated standards will lead to about $5 billion in health cost savings while helping fund infrastructure that will eventually reduce vehicle fueling costs in the long run.

I want to emphasize that there is a public health benefit to low-carbon fuels compared to fossil fuels — period, we cant say that enough, said board member Tania Pacheco-Werner.

But the timing of the vote — coming three days after Election Day — generated criticism that the meeting was scheduled to avoid political blowback from consumers.

It’s time to rein in CARB’s unchecked power,” state Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones, R-San Diego, said, “starting by revoking the federal waivers that allow them to do whatever they want, whenever they want without the consent of Californians who pay the price for their political agenda.

Gas prices in California are the highest in the country, averaging $4.519 per gallon on Friday, according to AAA — $1.42 higher than the average price in the U.S. The average price in San Diego on Friday stood at $4.561.

The vote also highlighted objections by environmentalists and other groups that think CARB gives too much priority to the production of biofuels, such as renewable diesel that is primarily made from crops like soybeans and canola oil, rather than emphasizing electrification in the transportation sector.

Critics also say the biomethane projects from dairies and landfills in the LCFS overstate their environmental benefits and the new rules sidestep opposition they have to the credits that companies can receive when making hydrogen or electricity from fossil fuels.

The Calgren dairy digester facility in the town of Pixley, California, produces biomethane. (Calgren Dairy Fuels)

Jose Avalos, a San Bernardino resident and volunteer at the Peoples Collective for Environmental Justice, said fuels such as ethanol and biomass are generating polluting emissions that lead to more people suffering from asthma and cancer and accused corporations of benefitting from loopholes in this standard.

But Andrew Craig, vice president at California Bioenergy in Visalia, said the Low Carbon Fuel Standard has been instrumental in making California home to more biodigesters than any other state. Adopting the proposed LCFS regulations are important to protect the investments already made by the state and to incentivize further investments in clean energy technologies, which directly benefit disadvantaged communities within the state, he said.

Board member Takvorian feared digesters create unintended climate consequences and said the LCFS update before the board puts a thumb on the scale to larger dairies, but her motion to make a change lost on a 10-4 vote.

In an indication of the interest in the issue before the board, nearly 150 speakers took part in the public comment period at Fridays meeting, either in person or via Zoom.