The Padres’ window of playoff contention is still open.
Unless things go wrong in a big way, the 2025 Padres should be able to contend for a franchise-record third playoff berth in four years.
There’s a nice mixture of youth and track record with Fernando Tatis Jr., 25, Manny Machado, 32, Jackson Merrill, 21, Michael King, 28, and Dylan Cease, who’ll turn 29 next month. A.J. Preller has hit on a high number of starting pitching acquisitions in the past five years, which bodes well as he rounds out a rotation that will also include Yu Darvish, 38.
Theres a comforting margin for error, too. MLBs expanded playoff field allows six of 15 National League teams into the World Series tournament every year. The actual competition for the six spots equates to about 12 teams because a few clubs are in steep rebuilds every year.
Padres home attendance should remain robust, further encouraging Peter Seidler’s successors to maintain the player payroll well above the San Diego media market’s bottom-five status in MLB.
Seidler made a lot of optimistic predictions about the Padres.
Perhaps his most accurate one came some four years after his 2012 arrival as a part-owner.
By 2020, Seidler predicted, the franchise would contend for playoff berths in most seasons for many years to come.
So far, that has proved true, though its still early. Come next summer, the Padres should be in the mix.
San Diego Padres pitcher Yu Darvish leaves the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers during Game 5 of the NLDS at Dodger Stadium on Friday, Oct. 11, 2024. (Photo by K.C. Alfred / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Flip side
But MLB’s more inclusive postseason isn’t all sweet.
As the Padres are discovering, the bigger World Series tournament, while more accessible than prior to the wild-card additions in 2012 and 2022, demands extraordinary aptitude up and down the roster.
Heres what Im seeing: the trophy is further away than it may first appear.
A Dodgers Dynasty Tax has evolved, burdening the Padres teams that reach the postseason.
Because surmounting the Dodgers in the 162-game NL West race is close to impossible, the 2022 and 2024 Padres were forced to accept a wild card, which under the format adopted in 22 requires playing a best-of-three series that the NL’s top two division winners get to bypass.
To capture a World Series trophy, wild-card teams such as the Padres must win 13 games. Thats a big number given the intensity of postseason baseball. And, given the history.
Since the second wild card was added in 2012, the only World Series champion to win 13 postseason games off a full season was Bruce Bochy’s first Texas Rangers squad a year ago.
Nine of the other 11 full-season champions had to win only 11 games.
The Dodgers have won nine of the past 10 West crowns, losing only when the Giants won 107 games.
If you think that’s too gloomy to believe its not realistic anymore for the Padres to win a 162-game race against the Dodgers, smell the hot coffee Preller served up in November 2020, weeks after the Dodgers swept the Padres out of the best-of-five Division Series.
The reality is, the Padres are never going to be able to compete financially and roster-wise completely with the Dodgers, Preller told ESPN’s Pedro Gomez, referring to the 162-game season. So, whats your next best option? Lets do the best we can and if we get there, we can beat them in a seven-game series.
The competitive gist of Prellers plan made sense. And the Padres responded by earning two wild cards and winning the best-of-five Division Series against the Dodgers in 2022. But for all the improvements, the Padres fell five victories short of the trophy in 22. They finished nine victories short last month despite knocking out the Braves and taking the Dodgers to the limit.
Winning a four-tiered World Series tournament will require something extra-extra special.