With rumors that the Dodgers will have interest in Juan Soto — and of course they might entertain another mammoth contract with Shohei Ohtani deferring so much of last year’s $700 million deal — A.J. Preller’s job only gets harder if he’s going to keep the Padres competitive in the NL West.
The Padres cut some $90 million from last year’s payroll and the inventive general manager traded away Juan Soto to begin to address all of the team’s needs.
Without a cure-all sitting on this roster, the path forward isn’t so clear as Major League Baseball’s offseason officially begins.
A matter of record
2024 finish: 93-69, 2nd in NL West, lost in NLDS Manager: Mike Shildt (2nd season, 93-69) Leading baseball ops: A.J. Preller, president of baseball operations (11th season, 3 playoff trips)
What’s next
Mike Shildt is entering the last year of his contract and that is triggering extension talks coming off the former Cardinals manager leading a rebound season. More pressing is the status of pitching coach Ruben Niebla, whose deal has expired and who has had a direct hand in transforming the likes of Seth Lugo and Michael King into starting pitching assets. Factoring in arbitration raises and guaranteed contracts, the Union-Tribune’s estimate for the 2025 opening day payroll has already soared past $198 million without beginning to address the holes vacated by departing free agents. That number is well past what the Padres spent in 2024 ($183.6 million, according to spotrac.com), so A.J. Preller will have to get extremely creative if ownership isn’t authorizing spending at higher levels in 2025. The remaining holes to fill begin with adding depth to a rotation that will be without Joe Musgrove (Tommy John surgery). The Padres will also be looking for a left fielder, a starting catcher, bullpen depth and a shortstop, whether that means a stop-gap because Ha-Seong Kim returns on short-term, prove-it contract after rehabbing his labrum tear, signing someone new or flirting with returning Fernando Tatis Jr. or Jackson Merrill to the position. A move for Tatis or Merrill, of course, would open a new hole in the outfield.
San Diego Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, right, celebrates with teammates Luis Arraez, center, and Jurickson Profar, left, after their 8-1 victory over the Dodgers on Wednesday night in San Diego. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images)
Decisions, decisions
A look at the options that will have to be exercised or declined early this offseason:
SS Ha-Seong Kim: His season-ending labrum tear complicates matters as both he and the Padres weigh an $8 million mutual option. Even after a down year at the plate (.700 OPS, 11 HRs), Kim was poised for a multi-year deal. But his rehab will likely carry well into next season, meaning Kim might not get the long-term deal he wants on the open market. The Padres will owe Kim a $2 million buyout if either side declines the mutual option. LHP Wandy Peralta: He missed a large chunk of the season with a groin strain, saw his ERA swell from 2.83 last year to 3.99 and was used just six times after returning from injury, including just once in the playoffs. All that likely plays into Peralta exercising his $4.25 million player option, a raise on last year’s $3.35 million salary.
Outgoing free agents
LHP Tanner Scott: The All-Star closer finished with a 1.75 ERA, his lowest mark over a full season. He saved 18 games with the Marlins (1.18 ERA) and four more after the trade to San Diego (2.73 ERA). Scott figures to be the top reliever on the open market. OF Jurickson Profar: The first-time All-Star had an .870 OPS before the break and a .794 OPS in the second half. The Padres hit the lottery on the one-year, $1 million deal signed after the start of spring training, but the switch-hitting Profar, 31, will likely look for one last multi-year contract. C Kyle Higashioka: The back-up turned starter finished the season with a career-high 17 homers and a .220/.263/.476 batting line in his first year in San Diego. Blasting three home runs in seven postseason games (1.062 OPS) was the kicker for an interesting walk year for the Southern California native. INF Donovan Solano: The 36-year-old hit .286/.343/.417 with eight homers over 96 games after signing a minor league deal in April. OF David Peralta: The 37-year-old signed a minor league deal in May after he was released from the Cubs. He hit .267/.335/.415 with eight homers in a resurgence following offseason elbow surgery. LHP Martín Pérez: The 33-year-old made 10 starts after the All-Star break (3.46 ERA), but was not given an opportunity to pitch in the postseason. C Elias Diaz: The 33-year-old was playing through an injury-riddled season in Colorado when he was released in August, clearing the way for the Padres to bring him aboard to replace Luis Campusano as the second catcher on the roster. Diaz played in just 12 games (.720 OPS) behind Higashioka. INF Nick Ahmed: The 34-year-old’s tour through the NL West took him from the Giants to the Dodgers to the Padres, but he played in just two regular season games as an extra infielder after the Padres’ clinched a playoff spot.
Eligible for salary arbitration
Players are eligible for arbitration after reaching three years of service time and reach free agency after six years in the majors (MLBTradeRumors.com’s estimates are in parentheses):
5-plus years: INF Luis Arraez ($14.6 million), RHP Dylan Cease ($13.7 million), RHP Michael King ($7.9 million), UT Tyler Wade ($900K) 4-plus years: RHP Jason Adam ($5.3 million), LHP Adrián Morejón ($1.8 million) 3-plus years: RHP Luis Patiño ($800K) 2-plus years: C Luis Campusano ($1.7 million as a Super Two qualifier)
San Diego Padres’ Xander Bogaerts (2), right, and Manny Machado (13) celebrate after the Padres turned a triple play during the 9th inning at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024.(K.C. Alfred / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Financial commitments
A look at the guaranteed contracts on the books over the next three seasons:
2025 ($144 million): SS Xander Bogarts leads the expenditures at $25 million, followed by Yu Darvish ($21 million), the injured Joe Musgrove ($20M) and Fernando Tatis Jr. ($20M). Manny Machado’s backloaded contract will see him make $13 million one last time in 2025, while the upcoming season marks the last of Eric Hosmer’s dead money ($12.24M). Jake Cronenworth jumps to $11 million next season, while Robert Suarez will make $10 million in 2025 before having the ability to opt out after the season. Yuki Matsui will make $5.5 million in his second year in the States, Wandy Peralta will make $4.25 million when he exercises a player option for 2025 and the Padres will owe Ha-Seong Kim a $2 million buyout if both sides reject his $8 million mutual option. 2026 ($132 million): Behind Bogaerts ($25M), Machado will be the second-highest paid player as the payout schedule in his 11-year, $350 million deal takes his salary to $21 million. Musgrove and Tatis will both make $20 million, but Darvish’s pay drops to $16 million. Cronenworth will make $12 million, Suarez will make $8 million if he opts in, Matsui will make $5.75 million and Peralta will make $4.45 million if he opts in. 2027 ($156 million): In his Age 34 season, Machado’s pay jumps to $40 million a year, which is what he’s due annually through 2033. Tatis also jumps to $25 million, tied with Bogaerts for the second-highest salary on the team, followed by Musgrove ($20M), Darvish ($15M) and Cronenworth ($12M). Suarez ($8M), Matsui ($6.5M) and Peralta ($4.45M) will only return if they opt in.
Notables eligible for the Rule 5 draft
High school-aged players signed in 2020 and college players signed in 2021 are eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the first time. Players signed before these years who are not on the 40-man roster are already eligible. A look at the notables whom the Padres will have to add to the 40-man roster this winter or risk losing them in December in the Rule 5 draft:
Triple-A: LHP Omar Cruz, RHP Kevin Kopps, LHP Jayvien Sandridge (minor league free agent), C Brandon Valenzuela (minor league free agent) Double-A: RHP Henry Baez, RHP Ryan Bergert, INF Marcos Castañon, LHP Ryan Och, LHP Jackson Wolf Single-A: RHP Garrett Hawkins, LHP Jagger Haynes