We really need to discuss Taysom Hill with the Saints off their bye and Hill back on the main slate.
The last time he took the field, the Mormon Missile ran for 138 yards and three touchdowns, added 50 yards on eight receptions, threw for 18 yards and had 42 kick return yards for good measure. Hill also threw an interception and lost a fumble because he ran out of positive things to do, I suppose.
It was the most impressive single-game effort on a football field since Polk Highs Al Bundy scored four TDs in the 1966 city championship against Andrew Johnson High School.
Of course, Bundy is a fictional character from the Fox sitcom Married with Children, but that seemed like a more apt comparison, because Hills performance was so surreal, he might as well have been a character from The Simpsons than an actual NFL player.
Wed probably have to go back all the way to the era of Jim Thorpe to find the last time human beings played football like Hill. Of course Thorpe excelled at every sport under the sun, while also taking on odd jobs to make ends meet, which somehow feels less real to me than a sitcom.
Hill was a contrarian play in Week 11, rostered by only 3.8% of the field, but this week hell likely end up in north of 30% of the lineups.
With all of its injuries on offense, getting Hill involved has become a necessity for New Orleans, not a luxury, and interim head coach Darren Rizzi has absolutely nothing to lose, so this type of usage could stick. Especially this week against a Rams team that just got bulldozed by Saquon Barkley.
However, the clearest path to taking down a large-field tournament like the Milly Maker is to not swallow the chalk and find leverage (with high ceilings) against the field.
The Lineup has one player currently projected to be rostered above 10% this week.
The Preamble
Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.
On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.
Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $2.5 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.
All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.
The Optimal Lineup has netted $177.86 this season, so I’m in the red $37.14 with an average score of 129.28 points through 12 weeks.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 90.16
Week 2: 144.38
Week 3: 100.38
Week 4: 180.78
Week 5: 147.14
Week 6: 126.72
Week 7: 132.98
Week 8: 114.84
Week 9: 168.48
Week 10: 97.16
Week 11: 138.58
Week 12: 109.78
Week 13 Lineup
QB: Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($7,700)
The top two QBs on the board come from the game with the highest total (51 points) on the slate. Lamar Jackson is slightly more expensive than Hurts and the Ravens are favored (-3). It makes sense to take the underdog QB with an increased expected throw rate and the likelihood hell be chasing points. Especially if hes the cheaper option in a matchup where the over could easily be reached. Both Jackson and Hurts (and their massive ceilings) are projecting for very low ownership thanks to the value plays at the position.
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($6,900)
Taylors being overlooked in a smash opportunity against the Patriots terrible run defense. Hes had at least 21 touches in five of his last seven games and would provide leverage against Anthony Richardson, whos projected to be the second-most popular QB on the slate.
RB: Gus Edwards, Chargers ($4,300)
The most popular QB on the slate is Justin Herbert, likely because everyone expects the Bolts to become pass-happy with J.K. Dobbins out. Many will stack Herbert with WR Ladd McConkey, so Edwards provides leverage on both and doesnt have to do much to pay off this investment. Hell likely see a workhorse role on the ground with rookie Kimani Vidal and Hassan Haskins siphoning some backfield snaps in passing situations. Theres no need to get cute with Vidal or Haskins, since theyre only $300 cheaper than Edwards.
WR: A.J. Brown, Eagles ($8,300)
With DeVonta Smith (hamstring) banged up, Brown will likely see the lions share of targets against the Ravens league-worst pass defense. Baltimore is allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
WR: Zay Flowers, Ravens ($6,200)
Starting Flowers this week is a bet on talent and offensive environment. He has usurped Mark Andrews as the player Jackson looks to when hes pressured, and its an all hands on deck week against the Eagles. Stacking Flowers with Hurts and Brown also helps me complete the narrative that this game ends up a shootout, much like the two Ravens-Bengals matchups from earlier this season.
WR: Tank Dell, Texans ($5,900)
Dells efficiency metrics have looked good since Nico Collins returned, but they haven’t translated to big fantasy days yet. The Jaguars have allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, the second-most fantasy points to running backs and third-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. So Houstons offense could get right here with Dell sharing in the wealth, or he could torpedo all of the C.J. Stroud-Nico Collins stacks that will certainly be popular this week.
TE: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers ($3,500)
Freiermuth is low-risk, high-reward at this salary. The Bengals are allowing the second-most fantasy points to tight ends, including 50 receptions for 569 yards and seven TDs in the last seven games. Freiermuth has produced at least 75 receiving yards or a TD in five of his six career games against Cincinnati, including career highs of nine receptions and 120 yards at Cincy last year.
FLEX: Adam Thielen, Panthers ($4,800)
Shockingly, WR David Moore is projected to be rostered over 30% this week based on the 10 targets he received in Week 12, Im assuming. Thielen established a solid rapport with Bryce Young last season, and was knocking off the rust last week after missing the previous seven games. According to Fantasy Pros, the Buccaneers have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers since Week 7.
DST: Tennessee Titans ($2,400)
The Titans defense have been much better in real life than fantasy this season. They have the top-ranked pass defense and a top-10 run defense, and face a Commanders team who put up nine points in 3½ quarters against the Cowboys last week.