By now, the depths of Jackson Merrill’s terrific 2024 season have been duly plumbed. All that remains is to find out Monday if baseball writers chose the Padres’ center fielder as the National League’s Rookie of the Year.
But worth a few moments of exploring, here, following, are side benefits to A.J. Preller being right about Merrill’s big-league aptitude.
Notably, it appears Merrill may have strengthened Preller’s hand in the trade markets .
Preller dealt five center fielders between December and August, gaining vital salary relief and landing big leaguers who would help the club reach the playoffs.
The five he dealt: big leaguer Trent Grisham and prospects Dillon Head, Jakob Marsee, Samuel Zavala and Homer Bush Jr.
Perhaps Preller would’ve traded the five center fielders regardless of his convictions about Merrill. But I’d guess the general managers robust faith in Merrill, whom he drafted and held out of the first Juan Soto trade, was reassuring.
The exodus of center fiedlers began in December, when the Padres traded Grisham and his $5.5 million salary to the Yankees in the second Soto blockbuster.
In March, Preller included Single-A outfielder Zavala, who may be more suited to left field, in the deal that brought co-ace Dylan Cease from the White Sox.
The Padres’ first-round draft pick in 2023, Head went to the Marlins in May, bringing back Luis Arraez. The same trade included Marsee, a sixth-round selection who had a big 2023 season followed by a strong Arizona Fall League.
Beating the July 30 trade deadline, Preller sent Double-A regular Bush to the Rays with two other minor leaguers in return for big-league reliever Jason Adam.
I doubt the Padres regret any of those trades. Their first-year returns on each of the four deals was better than average. Merrill, meantime, appears a long-term answer in center field, unless the Padres choose to move him back to shortstop.
Shut em down
Three of the players the Padres dealt in the past 12 months suffered season-ending injuries that required surgery.
Ray Kerr had reconstructive elbow surgery following a subpar start to the season with the Braves. Trading Kerr in December saved the Padres $4 million in salary, as part of ownership-mandated cuts that ultimately shrank the payroll by $90 million.
The White Sox announced in September that starting pitcher Drew Thorpe – Baseball Americas highest-ranked prospect of the three who went to Chicago in the Cease trade – would have season-ending surgery to shave down a bone spur in his elbow. Thorpe recorded a 5.48 ERA and subpar strikeout rate in 44 innings.
The Marlins knew an abductor injury had sidelined Head soon before they got him as their centerpiece in the Arraez deal. After only five games, they shut him down. In June, they announced Head had a season-ending procedure to remove a piece of bone from his left hip.
Philosophy
Under the new tandem of manager Mike Shildt and hitting coach Victor Rodriguez, the Padres increased their emphasis on bat-to-ball skills and line drives this year. As a byproduct, the Padres tied for first in the major leagues with a .263 batting average.
It appears the Padres may have taken the same philosophy into account when evaluating their minor leaguers as potential trade candidates.
Several prospects traded this year recorded meager batting averages. Zavala batted .187 with 104 strikeouts with the White Sox’s high Single-A club. Packaged for Arraez, DH-first baseman Nathan Martorella, 23, hit .214 in Double-A, while Marsee hit .188 (with 61 walks) in 320 at-bats. J.D. Gonzalez, a third-round draftee in 23, batted .074 with 40 strikeouts in 81 at-bats with a Rays Single-A club.
Marlins money
Preller got the Marlins to pay $8 million of the roughly $8.5 million due Arraez plus the roughly $4 million due reliever Woo-Suk Go in the same trade. Arraez hit .366 with runners in scoring position and had an adjusted OPS eight points above league average.
In effect, the Marlins paid $12 million for the trio of Padres minor leaguers.