Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa by 47% to 44%, a shocking new poll showed just three days before Election Day. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Polls results came as a complete surprise to political observers, as no serious analyst has predicted that the Democratic nominee will defeat Trump in the state. Its hard for anybody to say they saw this coming, said J. Ann Selzer, whose company Selzer & Co. conducted the poll.

Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa by 47% to 44% among likely voters, according to a shocking new poll released Saturday night, just three days before Election Day.

Harris advantage is within the polls 3.4 percentage point margin of error, but her lead reflects a 7-point swing by voters in her favor since September.

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Polls results came as a complete surprise to political observers, as no serious analyst has predicted that the Democratic nominee will defeat Trump in the state.

Neither candidate had campaigned in the state, which Trump has easily won in the past two presidential elections, since the presidential primaries concluded.

Its hard for anybody to say they saw this coming, pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co told the Des Moines Register.

She has clearly leaped into a leading position.

Selzer & Co. conducted the survey of 808 likely voters in Iowa from Monday to Thursday. Selzers company is highly respected by pollsters and her findings typically carry significant weight with political strategists.

Harris lead in the poll was powered by strong support from female voters, particularly older and politically independent ones.

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Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers, Selzer told the Register.

The poll found that 3% of respondents supported independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who ended his campaign to back Trump. Kennedy remains on Iowas ballot.

The same poll in September showed Trump leading Harris, the current vice president, by 4 percentage points. Trump led President Joe Biden, the then-presumptive Democratic nominee, by 18 percentage points in June.

Trump won the state by 8 percentage points in 2020 and 9 points in 2016.

The Republicans campaign issued a memo Saturday night that called the poll an outlier.

The memo noted that the new Emerson College poll of likely Iowa voters, released earlier Saturday, showed Trump leading Harris by 53% to 43%.

The Trump campaign memo said, Des Moines Register is a clear outlier poll. Emerson College, released today, far more closely reflects the state of the actual Iowa electorate and does so with far more transparency in their methodology.