Tuesdays election could say a lot about the future of San Diegos once-powerful Republican-business coalition.

That faction ruled the region long ago but has been greatly diminished in the face of continued growth and influence of organized labor and the Democratic Party.

Pivotal races for county supervisor and San Diego mayor, along with sales tax ballot measures for the city government and regional transportation system, may foretell whether the traditional GOP-business political partnership has much of a role anymore, especially within the citys boundaries.

Sweeping electoral tea-leaf reading always comes with caveats, and this one has many. Nevertheless, certain results could suggest new life for the GOP-business influence, or its continued downward spiral toward irrelevance.

The downer GOP scenario: Democratic Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer defeats Republican former Mayor Kevin Faulconer, Democratic Mayor Todd Gloria wins easily over independent Larry Turner (who has considerable business-GOP support) and the tax measures also win.

The GOP happy-face version: The opposite of all that.

Of course, split decisions on these elections would muddle the narrative.

Business and Republican interests tend to oppose higher taxes, but dont appear to have gone all in on opposing the two propositions. That doesnt guarantee passage, by any means. But both only require simple-majority approval.

Measure E calls for a 1-cent sales tax increase to help the city of San Diego maintain and expand services. Measure G is a half-cent countywide sales tax for mostly transit-oriented transportation projects.

The race between Faulconer and Lawson-Remer in the coastal District 3 has been the marquee local event in this campaign season. At stake is the partisan balance of power on the county Board of Supervisors, which currently has a 3-2 Democratic edge. Just four years ago, when Lawson-Remer was elected, Democrats broke through decades of GOP majorities at the county.

The GOP has a lot riding on Faulconer. Locally and statewide, influential party figures are hoping he shows a Republican can win in certain Democratic enclaves. He did that before as mayor.

Assessments of Faulconers candidacy range from suggesting he could be the leading edge of a Republican revival in deep blue California, or simply a last gasp for the GOP, which has virtually no power in state government or large cities.

Lawson-Remer didnt seem to distinguish herself much early on but in the latter part of her term became a stronger voice at the county, sometimes notably at odds not just with the Republicans, but fellow Democrats. She defeated a Republican incumbent four years ago and is backed by a powerful, and successful, Democratic-labor coalition.

District 3 is heavily Democratic, and coastal communities in general tend to be center-left to very left, certainly since the beginning of the Trump era.

If Faulconer wins, the claim that this suggests a new way forward for the GOP would meet some countervailing realities. Thats because Faulconer is unique. He was a rare Republican mayor in a big Democratic city.

Hes better known than the incumbent, though that can be a double-edged sword depending on how his mayoral record is viewed. Faulconer is a business-oriented Republican with positions on social issues (abortion, same-sex marriage, gun control) and the environment more in line with Democrats than the GOP core. He wouldnt be considered a fiscal conservative.

And he has attracted millions of dollars in campaign support that likely wouldnt go to a lower-profile candidate (with an unusual exception well get to soon).

On the statewide front, Faulconer showed the continued limited appeal of a Republican with a moderate image to the more conservative GOP electorate with his dismal performance running for governor during the unsuccessful recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2021.

This isnt breaking new ground, but no matter what the sweeping political themes and trends may be, each election is distinct.

As for the mayors race, what a difference $1.5 million can make.

Gloria hasnt had an entirely smooth first term, with homelessness still growing, controversial and expensive (for taxpayers) city real estate deals and vocal disgruntled pockets of constituents.

Still, hes the incumbent who won a resounding victory in 2020 with broad labor and business backing, much of which is still on his team — along with, significantly, the San Diego Police Officers Association. Turner, a San Diego police officer, advanced out of the primary with little public profile. His campaign resources were fit for a pauper.

Then in September, a virtually unknown Point Loma attorney with no previously known political activity gave $1 million to the political arm of the Lincoln Club of San Diego County, a right-leaning business organization.

Attorney Steven Richter, who still keeps a low profile, said he gave the money with no conditions, but expressed frustration with the direction of the city under Gloria. Everybody knew the money was going to be funneled into the Turner effort, and thats just what the Lincoln Club quickly did with it.

Late last month, Richter donated another $450,000 to the cause.

That was San Diegos September-October surprise. It seems like Richters largess should make Turner competitive, but the challenger still needs to gain a lot of Democratic votes that typically would go to Gloria, whose forces stepped up their fundraising.

A Turner victory would be a political earthquake. Even if he keeps the race tight in defeat, that may be a sign to the business community that elections in the city may not always have to be a choice among Democratic candidates.

But then, its unlikely that even a better-known, more experienced candidate favored by business and Republican interests is suddenly going to find a nearly anonymous benefactor in their corner.

What they said

Oren Cass, chief economist at American Compass, a conservative think tank, in The New York Times.

Our politics would benefit from greater recognition by partisans on both sides that they have been on the right side of some important issues and the wrong side of others and will be again.