A Path Forward: Reflections on 2020 as presidential election nears

Four years later, Americans seem even more divided – or at least, more dug in.


A Path Forward: Reflections on 2020 as presidential election nears + ' Main Photo'

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” It’s a nifty adage that’s attributed to Mark Twain, although there is no hard evidence he ever really said it. No matter the source, it compelled me to look at my column from four years ago, written just days after the presidential election.

What did we learn then that might be useful in the countdown to Nov. 5? It was a very different time, to be sure: America was less than a year into the coronavirus pandemic.

When I wrote the column, the outcome of the 2020 presidential election was unclear. Races in states such as Pennsylvania and Arizona were as yet uncalled. I described the enormity of the task at hand, saying, “The narrow path to victory – whether it belongs to President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden – means a lot of hard work ahead, to unite a divided country.”

Somehow, four years later, Americans seem even more divided – or at least, more dug in.

Our team at the National Conflict Resolution Center has been criss-crossing the country, talking to people and organizations eager for strategies to overcome political polarization, which has seeped into all our institutions. On a personal level, it seems everyone wants to know: How do I have a conversation with someone whose political views differ from my own?

In a 2018 Pew Research Center study, 53% of Americans said they find conversations across the divide “generally stressful and frustrating.” Our travels this year suggest this understates the current levels of frustration.

But the layers of this particular onion are worth peeling. “Hidden Tribes,” a report issued by More in Common, a nonprofit organization, identified seven distinct political groups within America. Five of the seven tribes – two-thirds of the American public – sit squarely between two loud, superpolitical wings. More in Common refers to the five tribes as the “exhausted majority.”

In an article that appeared recently in Greater Good Magazine, Sahar Habib Ghazi opined that the real divide in our country is between the wings and the exhausted majority – not between Democrats and Republicans, or even progressives and conservatives. For all the angst and noise, she concluded, Americans aren’t really interested in politics. They are busy living their lives.

So, if you’re talking to someone with different political views, it’s safe to suppose you have more in common than not. That mindset begets humility – a willingness to listen, show genuine curiosity, and let go of the belief that you own the only truth (perhaps hardest of all).

In 2020, I wrote about the risk that comes when we operate in debate mode and try to prove we are right. It can cause harm, especially when a person feels their identity and values are threatened. Once this relational line is crossed, returning can be difficult.

It’s an evergreen lesson: useful again this election season and in the weeks beyond, with holiday gatherings happening soon (and viewpoints as plentiful as the food).

My 2020 column also celebrated the presidential election experience. About two-thirds of eligible voters cast ballots, the highest rate for any national election since 1900. Most voting occurred before Election Day, likely attributable to pandemic-related accommodations.

I wrote about the fears that didn’t come to fruition: long lines at polling places, equipment failures, voter intimidation. I never imagined the outcome of the election would be disputed.

CNN recently reported that nearly nearly one-third of voters believed there were high levels of voter fraud in the 2020 election and that Donald Trump was the rightful winner.

It’s translated into a growing distrust of media and government agencies and a proliferation of partisan media outlets that are platforms for disinformation and fake news. Advancements in artificial intelligence have only exacerbated the problem.

Trust in the 2024 election results remains to be seen. As Mike Allen of Axios wrote on Thursday, “Both parties are preparing to challenge ballots, especially if mail-in or absentee votes are decisive in swing states, raising the possibility of prolonged court fights.” Big money will be spent to confuse us, he said, and “even cautious news consumers will be in danger of falling for falsehoods.”

We likely won’t know the winner of the election on Nov. 5 or even Nov. 6. Rather than fueling mistrust, it points to the importance of every eligible American casting a ballot to ensure their voice is heard.

Just ask former President Jimmy Carter, who turned 100 on Oct. 1 but was more excited about voting in this year’s election. It’s a lesson that all of us should take to heart.

Steven P. Dinkin is president of the National Conflict Resolution Center (NCRC), a San Diego-based organization that is working to create innovative solutions to challenging issues, including intolerance and incivility. To learn about NCRC’s programming, visit www.ncrconline.com.